Wealth and mortality at older ages: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the importance of socioeconomic position for survival, total wealth, which is a measure of accumulation of assets over the life course, has been underinvestigated as a predictor of mortality. We investigated the association between total wealth and mortality at older ages. METHODS: We estimated Cox proportional hazards models using a sample of 10 305 community-dwelling individuals aged ≥50 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. RESULTS: 2401 deaths were observed over a mean follow-up of 9.4 years. Among participants aged 50-64 years, the fully adjusted HRs for mortality were 1.21 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.59) and 1.77 (1.35 to 2.33) for those in the intermediate and lowest wealth tertiles, respectively, compared with those in the highest wealth tertile. The respective HRs were 2.54 (1.27 to 5.09) and 3.73 (1.86 to 7.45) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.36 (0.76 to 2.42) and 2.53 (1.45 to 4.41) for other non-cancer mortality. Wealth was not associated with cancer mortality in the fully adjusted model. Similar but less strong associations were observed among participants aged ≥65 years. The use of repeated measurements of wealth and covariates brought about only minor changes, except for the association between wealth and cardiovascular mortality, which became less strong in the younger participants. Wealth explained the associations between paternal occupation at age 14 years, education, occupational class, and income and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: There are persisting wealth inequalities in mortality at older ages, which only partially are explained by established risk factors. Wealth appears to be more strongly associated with mortality than other socioeconomic position measures

Determining the impact of regulatory policy on UK gas use using Bayesian analysis on publicly available data

This paper presents a novel method to analyse policy performance, using the example of legislation in the UK to require domestic boilers fitted since 1 April 2005 to be condensing. A technological uptake model based on the logistic equation is combined with four physical and economic models; Bayesian techniques are used for data analysis. Projections of energy savings are presented and the impact of different policy implementation dates investigated

Predicting the microbial exposure risks in urban floods using GIS, building simulation, and microbial models

London is expected to experience more frequent periods of intense rainfall and tidal surges, leading to an increase in the risk of flooding. Damp and flooded dwellings can support microbial growth, including mould, bacteria, and protozoa, as well as persistence of flood-borne microorganisms. The amount of time flooded dwellings remain damp will depend on the duration and height of the flood, the contents of the flood water, the drying conditions, and the building construction, leading to particular properties and property types being prone to lingering damp and human pathogen growth or persistence. The impact of flooding on buildings can be simulated using Heat Air and Moisture (HAM) models of varying complexity in order to understand how water can be absorbed and dry out of the building structure. This paper describes the simulation of the drying of building archetypes representative of the English building stock using the EnergyPlus based tool ‘UCL-HAMT’ in order to determine the drying rates of different abandoned structures flooded to different heights and during different seasons. The results are mapped out using GIS in order to estimate the spatial risk across London in terms of comparative flood vulnerability, as well as for specific flood events. Areas of South and East London were found to be particularly vulnerable to long-term microbial exposure following major flood events

Simulation of pollution transport in buildings: the importance of taking into account dynamic thermal effects

The recent introduction of the Generic Contaminant Model in EnergyPlus allows for the integrated modelling of multizone contaminant and dynamic thermal behaviour within a single simulation package. This article demonstrates how dynamic thermal simulation can modify pollutant transport within a building. PM2.5 infiltration from the external to internal environment under dynamic thermal conditions is compared in CONTAM, EnergyPlus 8.0, and Polluto, an in-house pollutant transport model developed in EnergyPlus 3.1. The influence of internal temperature on indoor PM2.5 levels is investigated by comparing results from standard CONTAM simulations and dynamic thermal EnergyPlus 8 simulations. Circumstances where the predictions of such models can diverge are identified

The thermal characteristics of roofs: policy, installation and performance

This paper investigates the in-situ performance of UK cold pitched roof structures through a case study dwelling of typical construction using site survey, and estimation of U-values through simple calculation and from measured heat flow data. Significant increases of U-values resulted from under- and un-insulated areas due to installation issues, whilst a higher than expected estimated thermal resistance of the roof space and structure was also noted, potentially associated with heat gains. Both issues are expected to be observed more widely in the stock and contribute to a performance gap for roof insulation

Subjective social status and mortality: the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Self-perceptions of own social position are potentially a key aspect of socioeconomic inequalities in health, but their association with mortality remains poorly understood. We examined whether subjective social status (SSS), a measure of the self-perceived element of social position, was associated with mortality and its role in the associations between objective socioeconomic position (SEP) measures and mortality. We used Cox regression to model the associations between SSS, objective SEP measures and mortality in a sample of 9972 people aged ≥ 50 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing over a 10-year follow-up (2002-2013). Our findings indicate that SSS was associated with all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer and other mortality. A unit decrease in the 10-point continuous SSS measure increased by 24 and 8% the mortality risk of people aged 50-64 and ≥ 65 years, respectively, after adjustment for age, sex and marital status. The respective estimates for cardiovascular mortality were 36 and 11%. Adjustment for all covariates fully explained the association between SSS and cancer mortality, and partially the remaining associations. In people aged 50-64 years, SSS mediated to a varying extent the associations between objective SEP measures and all-cause mortality. In people aged ≥ 65 years, SSS mediated to a lesser extent these associations, and to some extent was associated with mortality independent of objective SEP measures. Nevertheless, in both age groups, wealth partially explained the association between SSS and mortality. In conclusion, SSS is a strong predictor of mortality at older ages, but its role in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality appears to be complex

Changes in vitamin D levels and depressive symptoms in later life in England

Inadequate vitamin D levels have been associated with increased risk of depression. However, most of these studies are cross-sectional and failed to investigate the effect of changes in vitamin D levels. This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association of changes in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels with depressive symptoms in 3365 participants of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a large nationally-representative study of older adults. Based on their vitamin D levels at baseline and follow-up (sufficient ≥ 50 nmol/L; insufficient < 50 nmol/L), participants were classified as follows: with sufficient levels at both waves; with sufficient levels at baseline but not at follow-up; with insufficient levels at baseline but ≥ 50 nmol/L at follow-up; and with levels < 50 nmol/L at each time point. Depressive symptoms were measured using the 8-point CES-D scale. Data were analysed using logistic regression models. Compared with those with sufficient levels of vitamin D at both waves, only those with insufficient levels throughout were more likely to report elevated depressive symptoms (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.00–1.93). Becoming or no longer being vitamin D deficient was, in the short term, not associated with elevated depressive symptoms. Further evidence is required on whether vitamin D supplementation might contribute to the prevention or treatment of depression as well as on the duration of time for changes in vitamin D levels to lead to detectable changes in depressive symptoms

Detailed analysis of data from heat pumps installed via the Renewable Heat Premium Payment Scheme

The RHPP policy provided subsidies for private householders, Registered social landlords and communities to install renewable heat measures in residential properties. Eligible measures included air and ground-source heat pumps, biomass boilers and solar thermal. Around 18,000 heat pumps were installed via this scheme. DECC funded a detailed monitoring campaign, which covered 700 heat pumps (around 4% of the total). The aim of this monitoring campaign was to assess the efficiencies of the heat pumps and to estimate the carbon and bill savings and amount of renewable heat generated. Data was collected from 31/10/2013 to 31/03/2015. This report represents the analysis of this data and represents the most complete and reliable data in-situ residential heat pump performance in the UK to date

How solid is our knowledge of solid walls? - Comparing energy savings through three different methods

Recent UK-based studies have shown a performance gap between the energy performance of buildings calculated using tabulated thermophysical properties of solid walls and that estimated from in-situ measurements. Solid-walled buildings have been targeted by UK Government policies and incentive schemes to meet climate change mitigation targets and improve the efficiency of the building stock, as they are less efficient and more expensive to treat than cavity walls. Since it is common practice to estimate energy use and potential savings for buildings retrofit assuming standard values from the literature, the performance gap may have serious implications on the decision-making and the cost-effectiveness of energy-saving interventions. The aim of this paper is to compare and contrast the results obtained from three different methods for estimating normalised dwelling energy demand: a) the UK energy performance certificate (EPC) method, which uses the standard assessment procedure (SAP) with tabulated inputs (the business as usual case); b) the SAP calculated using empirical air change rates from pressure tests and U-values estimated analysing monitored data with a Bayesian-based dynamic method developed by the authors; c) a normalised annual consumption (NAC) method based on empirical energy consumption data from smart meter and weather data. The analysis is performed on a sample of dwellings from the Energy Saving Trust “Solid Wall Field Trials” dataset. Results show that EPC estimates are systematically higher (between 7.5% and 22.0%) than SAP. Conversely, the NAC displayed a large range of relative differences (between -77% and +99%) compared to the EPC. This raises questions about the relative merits and purpose of the EPC and SAP bottom up methods compared to the smart-meter data-driven NAC method. Further research is suggested using SAP 2009 to isolate the thermal component of energy demand and compare it directly with the NAC component

Housing as a modifier of air contaminant and temperature exposure in Great Britain: A modelling framework

This paper presents the development of a modelling framework that quantifies the modifying effect of dwelling characteristics on exposure to indoor air pollution and excess temperature. A georeferenced domestic building stock model of Great Britain was created using national housing surveys, historical weather, and local terrain data. Dynamic building performance simulation was applied to estimate indoor air pollution and overheating risk metrics at the individual building level. These metrics were then aggregated at various geographic units and mapped across Britain within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment to compare spatial trends. Results indicate that flats and newly built properties are characterised by lower indoor air pollution from outdoor sources, but higher air pollution from indoor sources. Flats, bungalows and newly built, more airtight dwellings are found to be more prone to overheating. Consequently, urban populations may experience higher levels of pollution from indoor sources and overheating resulting from the higher prevalence of flats in cities